A couple of weeks ago, I took plenty of heat from Mets fans as I labeled their 0ffseason a moderate success with a C+ grade until I saw further investment in the starting rotation and starting lineup. Since then, the Mets have signed a plethora of players including Freddy Garcia, Alex Cora, Rob Mackowiak, Kyle Snyder, Jon Switzer, Cory Sullivan, and Casey Fossum. Along with the Tim Redding signing, these moves have been met with a collective yawn from Mets fans wondering if an when the franchise will pony up and sign another quality bat, arm, or both.
To show just how unimpressive this bunch is, let's take a brief look at their most recent sightings.
Alex Cora - With a .245/.313/.348 career line, Cora is simply a pretty awful offensive player. His strength which is supposed to be on defense seems more a product of hype than production as his o.1 UZR in 457 career games at second base and 8.7 UZR in 538 games at shortstop are barely worth mentioning. A good year for Cora is worth about half a win.
Casey Fossum - A former top prospect, Fossum has been nothing but disappointing as a professional. 2002 was the last season his ERA was below 4.92. His career ERA now sits at 5.47 and he has done little over the past few years to warrant being worth a spring invite, let alone a roster spot.
Freddy Garcia - In 2008, Garcia returned from injury to post a 4.20 ERA over three September starts. While Bill James' projection has Garcia winning 10 games while sporting a 4.20 ERA in almost 170 innings looks strong, two other well regarded projections have him totaling four and five wins with and ERA of 4.50 and 4.68 respectively. This while not totaling triple digit innings totals in either. His last success? Seventeen wins in 2006, but that seems like eons ago considering his questionable conditioning and a serious injury which cost him almost all of 2007 and 2008.
Rob Mackowiak - Along with Redding, Mackowiak is the second Nationals player the Mets have signed after being released from their former employer. Formerly a valuable bench presence, his .132/.254/.208 line was a small sample, but enough to show the worst team in baseball his lack of value. If his 2009 value is equal to 2008, Mackowiak should be paying the Mets 2.3 million for his spring invite.
Kyle Snyder - Snyder and his career 5.57 ERA are overshadowed by his seemingly miraculous 3.81 ERA en route to helping the Red Sox win the World Series. Truth is in 2007-2008, his value was in the negative to the tune of 1.2 million dollars.
Cory Sullivan - a .279/.330/.391 career line as a supposed defensive specialist wouldn't be a bad add except the Mets already have two similar players in Angel Pagan and Jeremy Reed. As for the defensive specialist reputation, a career UZR of -13.6 in 294 career games brings his reputation into question.
Jon Switzer - Who? Switzer's last big league sighting was in 2007 en route to an 8.05 ERA with Tampa Bay. In 68 career appearances, his ERA sits at 6.11. Yikes! I understand somebody has to wear the number 79 jersey in spring training, but the Mets can and should sign better. Maybe he's a LOOGY in training, but at 29, he's little more than cannon fodder as exemplified by his career value of -1.5 million dollars.
I understand I spend most of my time on Metsgeek.com being the bad guy and picking apart every move. However, beyond Garcia, does anybody on this list really have any value whatsoever? Taking it even further, will any of these players even equal the value of their contract should they stick around?
Muhammad Ali floated like a butterfly and stung like a bee. Is it safe to say Omar Minaya's Ali impersonation would include a heck of a lot of floating and very little stinging? Maybe his hands are tied due to the Madoff scandal, but heading into a new stadium, does the organization really want its fan base to talk about this off season as the one that got away?
With the free agent market currently resembling the Circuit City liquidation sale, the Mets could all but guarantee the National League East for another 10-12 million in guaranteed money with added performance bonuses. With 2009 marking the opening of a new stadium built in part with 160+ million in taxpayer money, loading up for a World Series run should be expected shouldn't it?
As for the Mets off season grade? Make that C+ a C based on the major league contracts given to Cora and Sullivan offsetting the slight bump provided by taking a chance on Freddy Garcia.
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18 comments:
The Mets dont know what they are doing. Freddy Garcia? Spend some more money and get Garland! (too late now). He is much less of an injury risk, and the switch from AL to NL will prob give you a 3.80 something ERA. He isnt an ace, but he would be a solid 4th starter, maybe even a 3rd starter. I think Garland's value was severely underated.
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Most of these guys probably wont even see major league time. Cora is going to see time and while he's anything special he is useful. All of these guys are spare parts who will most likely hang around in the minors - minus probably Freddy Garcia. The bench is going to be Dan Murphy, Nick Evans, Alex Cora, Jeremy Reed, Ramon Castro...am I missing anyone?
most of these guys will be in the minors anyway...you do need depth in an organization...
Get Manny he will make up for The wilpon families bad Madoff investments. Who is more of a risk Manny or Madoff?
to say that another 10-12 mil will win you the nl east is just ignorant.
I can only hope all these signings are fill ins for injuries and that the injuries never occur.
Imagine Sullivan filling in for Beltran. How about Cora subbing for Reyes? I'm sure Redding and Perez would give you the same chance, particularly when the Mets play the Phillies (LOL).
Wilpon better pony up soon and bring in a couple of impact players (Manny, Hudson, Abreu, Sheets) or I for one am not going to any games this year. I can't stomach the fact that he's willing to bring the same (choakers) out on the field in 2009 after the bad taste this team has left us with the past two years.
The Mets did the same thing last year and the useless and overpaid eventually disappeared. I think they are trying to find the right mix of young players and veterans on the bench. Plus, I think most of the signings are low-risk gambles to see who emerges and might help. Teams often need 8 or more starters over a season and no telling the number of bench players. I mean who could have predicted Tatis having a good season at the beginning of last year. I guess my point is the bench rarely looks great.
Here was the bench last year to start the season:
Raul Casanova, C
Marlon Anderson, UTIL
Damion Easley, UTIL
Brady Clark, OF
Endy Chavez, OF
All capable but uninspiring which is what the bench on most teams is. The same thing will happen this year. They will cut Mackowiak (like they did Clark), pick between Sullivan and Reed, carry an extra catcher (or 2), keep Cora who can play multiple positions, one spot for half of the LF platoon and possibly one other guy like Nick Evans or Marlon Anderson. Again, maybe not stellar on paper but you hopefully don't need more than 25-35 games from any of them.
For comparison, here is the Phils likely bench:
Eric Bruntlett
Greg Dobbs
Matt Stairs
Ronny Paulino or Chris Coste
Geoff Jenkins/Jayson Werth
You’re citing UZR wrong — you’re using UZR/150 (UZR per 150 games played defensively) and not the total UZR over a players career. This makes Cora appear somewhat worse and Sullivan somewhat better then their actual numbers, but in Sullivan’s defense his poor numbers come from his lacking the range to play center, made that much worse by playing in Coors Field.
Bobby Abreu + Ben Sheets
10-12 million guaranteed plus performance bonuses.
I think that would put a little distance between them and the rest of the pack.
ben sheets and bobby abreu would be good additions for the mets but i still would only put them on par with the phillies after that.
I think the MLBTR tag was a little misleading and it's throwing a couple of readers off. The bench was mediocre before their recent signings. In the past couple of weeks, they added a number of guys and invited them to spring training. This wasn't really an analysis of their actual bench.
I've mentioned in other pieces for metsgeek.com how weak the Mets bench is and have been a proponent of them beefing it up by signing a RF and making Church a backup OF/1B.
The Mets could be making a big play at Abreu/Sheets, but are dabbling with a bunch of scrubs and I am not sure why.
this is stupid to overanalyze a bunch of non-roster invitees.. let's discuss the bench in april... met fans need to relax and start fresh in citi field, please god dont boo luis castillo on opening day, thats the reason guys like aaron heilman sucked here..i'll bet anything his era is below 3.50 in chicago this year because the fans will be patient and not put all the blame on him if he makes a mistake here and there. And this is coming from a met fan who was at game 7 in 06, so please met fans relax, and cheer you players, at least on opening day.
I agree about the booing, my friend. I'm a Cub fan and I've always liked Heilman's stuff. I hope our fans don't boo Bradley for the same reasons you mentioned...peace
I'm just about the biggest Heilman apologist there is. I wrote about him about a week before he was dealt.
http://www.baseballhandyman.com/2008/12/aaron-heilman-addition-by-standing-pat.html
You're nitpicking their AAA team. Who cares?
considering what the mets got back for Heilman, I'm satisfied dealing him. He was a consistent RP, but he didn't have the desire to be a great set up man or closer and in turn, handle that pressure. I suspect with less pressure in chicago he'll rebound, as long as he's healthy, but if he's not starting, Cubs fans are not gonna be able to trust him in pressure situations.
As for the mets offseason, its defiantly a B+. They went out and addressed there most glaring need... A BULLPEN. how many other teams have done been able to do that? the yankees and their rotation. who else? nobody.
granted their are a few teams that really didn't have that many concerns (Red Sox, angels and they've made some solid additions, but they haven't done anything really impressive, especially in light of their competition).
as for Cora, the guys solid on D and he's a winner. i'd say he's comparable to david eckstien, but obviously not a world series MVP and hence the discounted price. then again, maybe he's a way to get manny and pedro to sign at discounted rates.
The problem with the Eckstein comp is that Eckstein is a better offensive player at his worst than Cora is at his best.
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