Dynasty League Trade Chat - Baseball Handyman and Brett Sullivan from Project Prospect

This is a convo between myself and Brett Sullivan from Project Prospect. In a league we both play in, Brett Anderson, Hank Conger, Ubaldo Jiminez and the 7th draft pick were dealt for Brad Hawpe, Jeremy Guthrie, Barry Zito and the 13th pick. I felt the deal was worth an instant veto, Brett did not. Brett suggested I post the discussion as we both feel new and intermediate Dynasty League players could learn a great deal about strategy from the chat. I'd love to also hear who you thought won the debate as I'm a little biased.

BH: I can't believe you aren't vetoing this dynasty league trade
BS: it looks okay to me. im not sure the draft picks are neccesary
BH: two possible frontline starters and a power hitting catcher prospect for 2 big league average ballplayers and a piece of garbage
BS: brad hawpe is not league average
BH: as a right fielder, he's league average. take him out of Colorado and he's probably below
BS: hes an OF that has averaged 27 HR 100 RBI and 75 runs and a .287 avg the last 2 years. id say that is worth brett anderson and hank conger, easily. hank conger is very overrated. there is no chance he will stick at catcher
BH: his 116 RBI are the exception not the rule. I should know, i'm a hawpe owner
BH: and no speed
BS: maybe he doesnt need speed? well, hes still a rockie, isnt he?
BH: he's probably not in the top half of big league RF
BS: you can assume he will give you that stat line going forward
BH: which makes him average
BS: that isnt worth 2 prospects?
BH: it's not Hawpe I have a problem with. I'm just saying he's not better than an average RF
BH: Hawpe = Hart?
BS: lol, in real life hawpe >>> hart
BH: no way. in real life, Hawpe is like the WORST RF in the game. check the metrics. he's SOOOOOOOOOOOO bad on defense he negates any offensive value and then some. he's virtually worthless in the sabermetric world
BS: hart had a .327 wOBA last year. hawpe had a .379. not even close
BH: Hawpe was right between Gabe Gross and Ryan Church in overall RF value
BS: what are you looking at?
BH: ranked 23rd overall at the position
BS: i'd love to see
BH: Beyond the Box Score - this is actually great stuff. they rank at every position using metrics
BS: yeah, brian giles first. sold me right there. lol
BH: Hawpe is a -24 on defense
BS: defense has no bearing on fantasy though, so we might as well throw it out the window
BH: but you said in real life Hawpe > Hart
master66x (9:25:37 PM): well, offensively. hart doesnt walk
BH: but in fantasy baseball.......Hart > Hawpe for speed
BH: Hawpe vs. Abreu
BS: abreu is in hawpes cat. just alot older
BH: Hawpe vs. Rios
BS: hawpe is up there with those guys
BH: so he's more valuable in fantasy?
BS: maybe this guy doesnt need steal
BS: brad hawpe for brett anderson and hank conger is a fine trade
BH: Hawpe for Anderson is fine
BS: conger is nearly worthless
BH: but I would not veto that. if it was just that
BS: guthrie is right on jimenez level
BH: dude, I almost shot milk out of my nose there
BS: your so biased towards youth. jiminez walked 103 guys last year!
BH: Guthrie will not get any better. he's a 10 win pitcher in his prime
BS: but hes a steady performer
BH: Ubaldo is 24. ERA under 4 while walking over 100 guys
BS: yeah but far from a sure thing to be a top of the rotation pitcher
BH: that's ridiculous
BS: but, he walked 100 guys. bill james has him walking 106 next year
BH: guy allowed 16 less hits than IP. doesn't give up HR. strikes out about 8 guys per nine
BS: bill james has guthrie a half a run less ERA next year
BH: during his age 30 season
BS: but it doesnt matter, its not like he is 36
BH: Guthrie has Jiminez by 6 years
BS: exactly, you are overrating youth
BH: Guthrie is a find SP5 or borderline SP4
BS: what if the guy is trying to win next year. jimenez is not a better bet than guthrie
BH: Jiminez has the potential for an SP2
BS: but there is no proof of that, other than he throws hard. no number 2 walks 100 guys a year. his upside might be a 2
BH: he's a VERY gifted pitcher
BS: but i dont think he ever reaches that
BH: elite stuff
BS: so, the trade was upside for knowing what you are getting
BH: a former elite prospect
BS: so was guthrie at one time. he was a first-round pick. missed 2 years on a mormon mission. so add 2 years to guthrie. and your right, its a risky trade, but definitely not vetoable
BH: Jiminez can scare you off, but Guthrie has very little value
BS: you have to look at it objectively. you might not have made the trade
BH: Guthrie and Hawpe have hit their ceilings. SP4 and middle ranking RF. Anderson is a borderline top 10 overall prospect right now
BS: okay, you have to trade a top prospect in order to get a guy like hawpe
BH: Jiminez was a VERY high ranking prospect who had an ERA under 4.00 and over 170 K in his first full season
BS: and guthrie should consistantly put up mid-3 eras for a handful of years
BH: with Jiminez under 4.00 6 years earlier
BS: jiminez also screams injury, very soon. and at 24 years old, i dont expect him to all the sudden find his command. he appears to be a guy who will always walk a bunch. guthrie 1.23 whip, jimenez 1.43 whip. guthrie 3.63 ERA, jimenez 3.99 ERAS. jimenez 172 K, guthrie 120
BH: 2 more W and 50 more K. 50 more K is a lot
BS: so is .20 whip. its a coin flip for me is what im saying. you cant prove one is more valuable. therefore you cant veto it
BH: a coin flip when Jiminez is 6 years younger. with about 10x more upside
BH: "The Rockies have a true ace in the making here, as Jimenez consistently toys with reaching triple digits on the radar gun. He walks a lot more batters than he should and strikes out far too few, given his curveball and slider. He is the kind of pitcher who could blossom with a little more seasoning."
BS: i agree, except for the first sentence. i dont know of any ace who walks that many
BH: it's called development
BS: if he makes huge strides, than its a bad trade. but thats also a big if that not many people can do
BH: most pitchers aren't even up until 24 or later. this guy already had an almost 200 inning season with an ERA under 4.00
BS: not most top prospects. most top prospects are in the majors by 22
BH: Colon had seasons of 90 and 98 walks
BS: im sure u can find plenty of pitchers who walked a ton
BH: so the ERA and WHIP are nice placeholders, but he will never be better than blah
BS: i agree
BH: you don't trade Jiminez for blah. you don't trade anderson for blah
BS: jiminez could be less than blah
BH: he's already more than blah
BS: jiminez could blow his elbow out and be done
BH: he wins more and K's A LOT more....and in fantasy baseball, guys like pitchers who K guys
BS: hes about as likely a candidate of an injury that there is
BH: maybe so. "He's worth drafting as a No. 5 Fantasy SP next season despite his limited upside." that's what they say about Guthrie. this is a DYNASTY league. your mentality is year by year
BS: but guthrie isnt 35. hes 30, hes got plenty left in the tank
BH: In a dynasty league, starting pitching is king because you never have to trade them. and two possible frontline starters went from one team to another
BS: i dont think this is clearly lopsided. i think if barry zito was anyone else, you wouldnt be making a big deal of it
BH: no, it's all about the arms, the top shelf arms
BS: they are good arms. hawpe is a good stick, guthrie is a good pitcher. idk, it doesnt shift any sort of power. its maybe .01% advantage overall?
BH: you don't deal baby arms for 30 year old guys unless they are STARS
BS: haha, some people do that, in real life, a lot. i have a question. would you veto this trade. casey blake for carlos santana and jon meloan
BH: don't care much for Meloan. Blake in a dynasty format is next to worthless at 35. he has no trade value. 20 HR 3b at 35
BS: lol, is real life a dynasty format?
BH: the dodgers have been RIPPED for that deal. nobody likes it. and I hate their re-signing blake. the idea of 2-3 years of a 20 HR blake for potential a decade of plus offense at catcher. it's a no brainer from a dyansty standpoint
BS: is scott olsen and josh willingham worth emilio bonifcacio?
BH: that was a brutal trade. and I ripped the marlins myself. cheap a** holes. a league average SP at 25 and solid 4th OF on a good team for a little 2b who steals a few bags. horrible
BS: yea i agree
BH: I honestly don't veto much. I just look at these deals and think these managers have no earthly idea of what goes in a dynasty league
BS: i dont think its that bad. if someone traded johan santana for the 4 the twins got it would be a travesty
BH: there's no money in this though. that's the difference. salaries and years change things
BS: true, but still
BH: at any one time that are what, 10-15 SP in the game with 200+ K potential
BS: i guess, but K arent everything, 1 of 4 cats. 25% go to K, 50% go to ERA and WHIP
BH: last year 10 guys K's 200+. look at King Felix and Ubaldo. there's not that much difference, and I love king Felix
BS: felix is over 2 years younger and has 666 innings under his belt
BH: i'm not talking age. i know he's younger
BS: in '07 felix had over a 3/1 K/BB
BH: yep. I own Felix in my dynasty league. love the guy
BS: you own everyone
BH: i play in too many leagues that's why
BS: so do I haha. from age 22 to age 24, huge difference. from 24 to 26 not nearly as big; ESPECIALLY for pitchers
BH: i know. however, Ubaldo is one of those guys with 200 K potential and that's HUGE in fantasy; especially in a dynasty format. it's just one category I know, but the K's, lack of HR, and high walks show a guy with a super ceiling that could be elite if it clicks. You don't deal those guys in dynasty leagues.
BS: but "click" means cutting his walk rate in half

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