"Daniel Murphy is going to be the Mets version of Rusty Greer and will quickly become a fan favorite for his ability to play the game. Greer's career was cut short by injury, but he averaged .310 20 HR 100 RBI in his prime. I think Mets fans will be very pleased. Of course I said the same about Matt Murton a couple of years back for the Cubs."I wrote this in a piece after watching Murphy play a couple of games in Atlanta towards the end of the season. I was impressed with Murphy's grit, hustle, and overall baseball IQ. What he lacks in raw talent, he makes up for with hustle and drive. I followed the Greer comparison with,
"Speaking of Murphy, would the Mets be satisfied if he became a similar player to the Braves Kelly Johnson? Johnson started out in the outfield with less initial success than Murphy, but was later successfully transitioned to the infield."Unfortunately for Mets fans, dreams of Murphy as a second baseman seem shattered as Omar Minaya recently announced the Mets intention of using him as a left fielder with an occasional start at first base to spell Carlos Delgado. What does this mean for Murphy's value? It obviously takes a hit as a potential plus offensive second baseman now becomes a left fielder fighting to be league average.
With Beltran being one of the top offensive center fielders in the game, the Mets can handle one below average offensive corner. However, starting both Ryan Church and Daniel Murphy would be a drag on the offense; made worse by Minaya seemingly putting his faith in both Luis Castillo (3rd worst at second base in 2008) and Brian Schneider (19th ranked catcher in 2008). This is not to say Murphy won't one day be league average or better at the position, but the Mets want to win a World Series now, and I doubt it's possible with the 24th ranked right fielder in baseball and a still developing Murphy.
I appreciate Mets fans having a soft spot for Ryan Church after his stellar start to the 2008 season. Yes, his production took a huge hit post concussion hurting what was looking to be a breakout 2008 campaign. However, nothing in his history other than a couple of prolonged hot streaks point to Church becoming another Ryan Ludwick. As a former 14th round pick, Church was arguably old for the league at every minor league level, developed a bad reputation with his previous organization costing him playing time, and is rumored to be unhappy in New York. A team could do worse than .270/.350/.450 from right field, but can the Mets afford to take a chance on a healthy and productive Church knowing lingering effects from his concussion could still be an issue and Daniel Murphy is no guarantee.
What are the Mets options? Significant upgrades are available, but at a price as only Bobby Abreu is a free agent. Abreu ranked 14th among right fielders in 2008. Below are a few options the Mets should consider through trade who have been rumored as available at one point or another and what it might take to get them. Players are ranked based on perceived value to the Mets versus what it will take to land the player.
Ryan Ludwick - The Cardinals seem to be looking to cash in on Ludwick's monster 2008 as he is rumored to be the centerpiece in a handful of potential trades including a deal to the Braves for Kelly Johnson. While Johnson seems like an awfully small haul for an outfielder with a .299/.375/.591 line, it may indicate an opening the Mets can exploit. Yes Ludwick is thirty and has only one year as a starter under his belt, but the power is real even if his batting average falls back to the .275 range. With him under control for a few more years, he can be had through his prime. The major hitch is the Cardinals and Mets do not make great trade partners with the Cards looking for pitching and major league ready middle infield help. However, the Cardinals do like taking chances on pitchers similar to Heilman and may have an interest in him as a starter.
Potential Package: Jon Niese, Eddie Kunz, 3rd player for Ryan Ludwick
Randy Winn - Surprisingly, Winn ranked 5th among all right fielders in 2008 leaving me scratching my head as to why he hasn't found any suitors as of yet. With a .306/.363/.426 line, twenty-five steals and plus defense, he would be a great fit in the two hole. As an added bonus, he's a free agent after the 2009 season leaving Fernando Martinez and his .346/.388/.564 line in winter ball with a clear path to New York should he break out in 2009 as I expect him to. Call me crazy, but if we can shed Castillo in a package to the Giants, I would even consider bring back Barry Zito if the Giants agreed to eat some of his salary.
Potential Package (No Zito) - Aaron Heilman or Eddie Kunz/Mike Carp for Randy Winn
Potential Package (Inc. Zito) - Eddie Kunz/Mike Carp/Luis Castillo/Ramon Castro for Randy Winn/Barry Zito/eighteen million to bring Zito's annual salary to 9 million.
Franklin Gutierrez - Certainly not a sexy name to discuss in trade talk, but he can be had on the cheap, is already one of the better defensive right fielders in the game and is a player I can see developing along the lines of Mike Cuddyer and contributing a handful of 20+ home run seasons before all is said and done. Gutierrez is a great example of what happens when prospect overhype is mixed with undue organizational pressure causing a player's growth to be stunted. Still only 25, he could prove an asset even in a platoon role with Church as he has hit lefties better than righties in his short career.
Potential Package - Eddie Kunz for Franklin Gutierrez
Of course Bobby Abreu is always an option in right as his consistency and all around game would fit in perfectly into the Mets plans. I do worry about the years being discussed for many of the thirty something free agents available. I can see two to three years for Abreu, but four would be too much for the thirty-four year old Abreu.
Click Here to view Daniel Murphy's career projection.
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