Read The Baseball Handyman @ Metsgeek.com

I just wanted to take a moment to let you all know that I will be writing a weekly piece about the New York Mets for Metsgeek.com. I'm amped about the opportunity to reach a bigger audience and hope you will all check it out!

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Impress Your Buds - Jay Jackson, SP, CHC

Two-way baseball players are always great to have on a minors fantasy baseball roster. Success in multiple sports or at multiple positions in a sport shows athleticism which is often a great indicator of a players ability to adapt and improve quickly . I signed Jay Jackson this morning as a former college P/OF who was a lower profile 2008 pick, but is leaving a great first impression on the Chicago Cubs Faithful. My crack research staff (yeah right!) was able to find this information on Jackson.

• 9th round pick in the 2008 draft
• Named Baseball America's #2 prospect in the Great Lakes Summer Collegiate League during summer '07.
• Named Baseball America's #3 Southern Conference 2008 draft prospect.
• Named 1st team All-Southern Conference as a 2-way player
  
• 9-2, 3.17 ERA as a pitcher/.336, 8 HR as a hitter during junior season
• Invited to play in the Cape Cod League before signing
  
• former high school basketball/baseball star
  

His success has carried into the professional ranks;

Age 20 - 2.80 ERA, 1.02 WHIP with a 70/13 K/BB ratio in 45 IP between A-, A & A+.

Yes, you read it right. 70 strikeouts in 45 innings pitched equals a remarkable 14 K/9. More impressive is his K/9 rate has held steady at each level and his ERA has dropped even though his BB% has increased. At this point, These numbers are just too good to ignore as he is firmly cementing himself as one of the true steals of the 2008 draft class.

Information on Jackson is pretty tough to find online and I have not been able to track down any type of scouting report. However, everything I've read on Jackson screams late bloomer and I would recommend signing him first and asking questions later. If his numbers were all in rookie ball it would be one thing, but rising two levels in less than two months as a 9th rounder is just obscene.

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Prospect Tip from a Reader

Eric Johnson, a contributor at Brew Crew Ball was gracious enough to send me a tip to share on the blog.

"I interview many Brewers minor leaguers for Brew Crew Ball and figured I'd give you a heads on a player. Wily Peralta is apparently flashing some serious stuff for Helena. According to several of his teammates, he's been hitting 97 regularly and has a sick slider to boot. He's coming off Tommy John surgery which caused him to miss all of last year, but he's already dramatically outshining fellow 2005 Dominican signee Rolando Pascual, the biggest international signing to hit Milwaukee in awhile. I hadn't put much stock in Peralta's good numbers until now (I didn't include him in my last Top 30 list), because it's easy to write him off as another Rookie-ball reliever. However, his age (he's still only 19) and stuff are deserving of a spot in the back of my mind. I think he could move fast as a closer prospect."

As a side note to this piece, Wily Peralta was promoted to the A- West Virginia affiliate since being first provided the tip.

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Poll Results - OF Prospect Most Likely to Flame Out

1. 56% - Fernando Martinez, NYM
2. 18% - Cameron Maybin, FLA
3. 12% - Andrew McCutchen, PIT
4. 12% - Colby Rasmus, STL

While not surprised Fernando Martinez won this pole considering he is a lower ranked prospect than the other three, what is surprising is his receiving a higher percentage of votes than the other three candidates combined. I figured that Martinez' age would gain him a partial pass, but this was definitely not the case. Martinez seems to have been lumped together with Jose Tabata and Elvis Andrus as IFA's who are more hype than hit at this point. At 19, Martinez' .283/.334/.423 line in AA isn't bad, but not exactly fitting of a player with an APR of 25.25.

Cameron Maybin is a distant runner up as an outfielder bursting with tools who seems to be stagnating some. With an APR of 9.5, Many believed he would be manning center for the Marlins by now, but his AA numbers would indicate a need for more seasoning in the hope of his being ready to really contribute by opening day 2010.

Andrew McCutchen tied for 3rd in the poll with 12% of the vote. At 21, he has been young for his level every step of the way and his numbers have suffered because of it. With an APR of 18.5, prospect lists have been more lenient than the average fan as I sense people are beginning to sour on McCutchen a little bit. With a .278/.371/.392 line and 30 SB, he may wind up being the Pirates opening day CF in 2009, but another half season in AAA to add polish might be in order.

2008 was a relatively lost year in the development of Colby Rasmus, With 12% of the vote, he was more or less given a pass for an injury plagued AAA debut. Of the four prospects on the poll, he has clearly shown the most power potential and polish to this point and is the only prospect of the four whose APR of 5 may not suffer from a disappointing campaign.

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Sleeper Potential - Isaac Galloway, OF, FLA

Isaac Galloway's current .274/.293/.397 line in the GCL is about as pedestrian as it gets. Decent average, little on base ability and power would normally not warrant a second look. However, Galloway's skill set is much stronger than his numbers would indicate and his recent success on the field leads me to believe that he is just beginning to scratch the surface.

A former Aflac All-American and 36th ranked draft prospect by Baseball America, Galloway was drafted by the Florida Marlins in the 8th round of this years draft after being projected to go no later than the 2nd round because of signability issues. Surprisingly, he signed very quickly for $425,000 and has been available for almost the entire GCL season. This might not seem significant, but Galloway's tools are raw making every extra inning of experience important.

This shows in his monthly splits;

June - .211/.211/.316 (4 games)
July - .245/.272/.378
Aug. - .339/.348/.452

He has yet to show off his 6.5, 60 speed as he has been limited to four stolen bases so far, but his technique should improve with time. His approach also needs refining as a walk every 45 at bats just isn't going to cut it. Fortunately, Galloway has enough raw ability to still achieve some success while he improves on his deficiencies. As it currently stands, Galloway's ceiling is 3rd among outfielders in the Marlins system behind Cameron Maybin and Michael Stanton.

Galloway's early struggles leave an opportunity to monitor him from a distance for the time being. He should be placed on all watch lists and could be added in deep leagues if the managers in said league are pretty sharp. In my leagues, he was not selected in our version of the amateur draft and was later briefly signed and dropped.

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Impress Your Buds - Wilfredo Boscan, SP, TEX

Through the MLB draft and by raiding the IFA market, the Texas Rangers now find themselves flush with talented young pitchers. Often forgotten among the talk of 95 mile per hour fastballs and hammer curves is Wilfredo Boscan, an 18 year old IFA from Venezuela who is currently undefeated in class A short season ball. With a 7-0 record and solid peripherals, he's looking like the next in a long line of talented Ranger pitching prospects.

let's take a look at Boscan's numbers;

Age 17 - 1.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, .210 BAA with a 61/13 K/BB in 56 2/3 IP @ DSL
Age 18 - 2.96 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .258 BAA with a 54/8 K/BB in 51 2/3 @ A- (SS)

Obviously, a 5.5/1 K/BB ratio at such a young age is impressive. Mix in a 54% GB rate and you have the makings of a pitcher saber-heads will clamor over. Boscan's only drawback is his 51 hits allowed in 51 2/3 IP, but this can be attributed to a rather high .338 BABIP and the possibility that he's just a young pitcher filling up the zone a little too much.

Personally, I've owned and dropped Boscan on a couple of occasions this season and am still looking for a way to stash him. I would recommend signing him in all deep leagues before the word gets out. He can be placed on watch lists in leagues with fewer minors spots for now, but watch him closely to see where he opens up the 2009 campaign. With his current peripherals, further adjustment to the United States, and the addition of some meat to his 6'2" 160 lb. frame, Boscan could take off.

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Sleeper Potential - Matthew Moore, SP, TB

In trying to find information on Matthew Moore after seeing his gaudy minor league stat line, I found the going a little tough. After not making Baseball America's top 30 prospects, or John Sickels top 20, Moore recently popped up on a Baseball America rookie league blog touting a solid outing so I decided to take a look. On paper, Moore's numbers are quite impressive;

Age 18 - 2.66 ERA, .160 BAA, 29/16 K/BB in 20 1/3 IP @ Rk
Age 19 - 2.03 ERA, .163 BAA, 64/16 K/BB in 44 1/3 IP @ Rk

Additionally, I found these prospect nuggets about Moore;

• 8th round pick by TB in the 2007 MLB draft
• Former N.M. 4A player of the year
• Scout quoted as saying Moore possesses an "overpowering" fastball
• Clocked as high as 94 MPH in high school
• By all accounts, his secondary offerings need work
  
• Brother pitches or pitched at the University of New Mexico
• Comes from a military family
  

With Tampa Bay hitting on so many pitching prospects right now, it's hard to ignore a 6'2" 205 lb. southpaw hitting 94 on the gun. I wonder just how far behind his secondary pitches remain as a 2nd year in rookie ball after having initial success in 2007.

I placed him on my watch list, but am waiting for more information before using a roster spot on him. In extremely deep leagues, he might be worth a flyer, but I would hold off for now and monitor him closely. It's probably too late for a promotion at this point, but I'd love to see it. A 0.64 ERA and 17/5 K/BB ratio in 14 August innings warrants it.

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Baseball Handyman's Fantasy Football Foray

I'd love to hear some opinions on my football team. F.F. is my 3rd best fantasy sport behind baseball and basketball. The league is an 8 team dynasty keeper league where you keep the entire roster from year to year. We play 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 OP, 2 D, 2 K, 8 BE. I know 8 teams isn't many, but the league consists of the managers from my NL & AL only baseball leagues. Personally, I feel the team is loaded with talent, but not really built to contend this year.

Quarterbacks

Ben Roethlilsberger
Eli Manning
JaMarcus Russell
Matt Ryan

Running Backs
Joseph Addai
Ronnie Brown
Darren McFadden
Chester Taylor
Matt Forte
Rashard Mendenhall

Wide Receivers
Braylon Edwards
Laveraneues Coles
Roy Williams
Chris Chambers
D.J. Hackett
Devin Hester

Tight Ends
Vernon Davis
Greg Olsen

Defense
49ers
Cardinals

Kickers
Phil Dawson
Jeff Reed

Here is also a league roster link if anybody wants to look.

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2008 MLB Draft - Big Arms Turning Down Millions!

What exactly are Aaron Crow, Alex Meyer, Gerritt Cole, and Brett Mooneyham thinking? I can understand a player having confidence in his ability, but this is ridiculous.

Gerrit Cole choosing UCLA over the 2+ million and pinstripes?

Aaron Crow choosing independent ball over 3.3 million from the Nats?

Alex Meyer turning down 2 million from the BoSox?

Brett Mooneyham rejecting a 1.4 million offer by the Pads?

I can see the public service announcement by MLB now with a black screen scrolling through the thousands of wasted arms throughout baseball history with Ben Stein saying something to the effect of, "So you think you are invincible? These guys did too!"

How quick players and agents alike seem to forget about the Matt Harrington debacle.

Sure re-entering the draft helped Luke Hochevar jump to #1 overall, but we will never know if losing a full season of development time will effect his career line. What we do know is that he has struggled more than expected causing expectations to be tempered. Should Hochevar never be more than a #3/4 starter, how many millions in career earnings did he possibly sacrifice for a bigger bonus? Not to mention the extra year it will take for him to reach arbitration, free agency and the fact that his not signing initially caused his career to be pushed back a year and likely cost him overall MLB service time.

A player must be supremely confident in his abilities to turn down the instant wealth and status of being a million dollar bonus baby. With that kind of confidence, why not trust that the money earned on the back end of a long and successful career will more than make up for conceding a little bit at draft time. Even if it doesn't work out, at least the player is left with something. In the case of these four pitchers, they risk losing everything.

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Fatal Flaw? - Angel Salome, C, MIL

Angel Salome's favorite book must be "The Little Engine that Could." At 5'7", this pint-sized hitting machine is opening eyes and raising questions about whether a catcher of such small stature can be a quality everyday player.

As a hitter, Salome has put up numbers ranging from solid to spectacular;

Age 18 - .235/.271/.321 in Rk
Age 19 - .347/.399/.570 in Rk & A-
Age 20 - .292/.349/.447 in A-
Age 21 - .318/.341/.465 in A+
Age 22 - .356/.403/.538 in AA

While Salome doesn't walk much, he doesn't strikeout much either as exemplified by a career K/BB ratio of just under 2/1. In general, catchers with a .320/.367/.491 minor league line would draw considerable hype and high prospect rankings, but his stature has left many wondering where he fits in the big picture.

As a defender, Salome still needs work by all accounts, but his arm is just shy of howitzer status. As a former college catcher of smaller stature (5'9"), being well under 6' can actually be an advantage in providing a low target for pitchers and keeping compact throwing mechanics. Charles Johnson signaled the start of an era of taller catchers being the prototype, but as Eric Munson already knows, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia may soon find out, fielding the position is pretty damn hard for a player above 6'1". This may play to Salome's advantage.

At the major league level, no catcher I was able to find is listed as shorter than 5'9". In fact, there are many more major league catchers above 6'0" than below. Obviously Ivan Rodriguez is the biggest name on the 6' and under list, but Russ Martin (5'10") and Dioner Navarro (5'9") are also having considerable success as catchers of smaller stature. Still, these players are the exception, not the rule and there really is no track record for a 5'7" catcher having any sort of success at the big league level. With that said, for an organization to hand the reigns to Salome would be a tremendous leap of faith.

To say Salome won't be a quality major leaguer based on his height is a bit premature, but wondering if his size will keep him from receiving a fair shot isn't. Most scouts, especially older ones, will be the first to admit that they look at a player and instantly try to compare him to someone familiar. With no comparison available, Salome may have difficulty finding an opportunity to break the mold.

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Poll Results - Worst Run MLB Organization

1. 42% - Seattle Mariners
2. 23% - Houston Astros
3. 15% - Washington Nationals
4. 15% - San Francisco Giants
5. 2% - New York Mets
6. 2% - Los Angeles Dodgers

Not surprisingly, Seattle took the win with almost half of all votes received. During the Bill Bavasi era, the Mariners became a complete mess full of players with bloated contracts blocking prospects at AAA. Hopefully a new regime can begin the turnaround.

Houston, with their never ending string of draft debacles came in 2nd. With possibly the worst minor league system in baseball, and a middle of the pack NL Central team, they should be on this list for years to come.

Washington and San Francisco are in similar situations in that their major league teams both stink, but their lower minor leagues are loaded with talent. It will take a few years before these players start breaking through, but once they do, both franchises could improve quickly. Give extra kudos to the Washington Nationals for taking care of guys like Dmitri Young and helping its players through tough times.

bringing up the rear are the Mets and Dodgers. I thought both teams would receive a few more votes for the Mets handling of the Willie Randolph situation and the Dodgers not pulling the trigger on Johan or C.C. However, the Dodgers were able to land Manny Ramirez though and his bat will definitely help down the stretch.

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Fatal Flaw? - Greg Halman, OF, SEA

As an owner of Greg Halman in the deep keeper league I'm a member of, penning a piece about his possibly having a fatal flaw is not exactly fun. In wanting to believe in his speed/power combination, I try to overlook his propensity for striking out too often and not walking quite enough. However, he does have youth and athleticism on his side and could improve his ratios with further development.

Halman, an IFA from the Netherlands, is in his 4th professional season. Take a look at his numbers by age.

Age 17 - .258/.350/.449 with 1 SB in Rk
Age 18 - .259/.295/.509 with 10 SB in A-
Age 19 - .252/.312/.454 with 31 SB in A & A-
Age 20 - .275/.323/.532 with 29 SB in A+ & AA (current)

While these numbers look rather steady from year to year, Halman bombed to the tune of .182/.234/.273 with an alarming 77/8 K/BB ratio during his first taste of full season ball in 2007. After his demotion and a 3rd round of short season baseball, he began to excel. His .307/.371/.597 explosion served as a springboard for his stellar 2008. Halman has even cut his caught stealing numbers down en route to an almost guaranteed 30/30 campaign.

Even with his current success, Halman has questions surrounding his overall game which need to be answered. With 162 K's in 2006 and another 140-150 expected this season, does Halman have the contact skills to allow his production to match his talent? His walk rate remains unimpressive, but a drop in strikeouts has improved his K/BB rate to just over 5/1 which is still very poor. Will Seattle continue to rush him through the system and deny him the opportunity to fully develop before he can fix his flaw?

Fortunately, he's still very young and his athletic ability is unmatched in the Seattle organization although Michael Saunders might argue that statement. 2009 should see his prospect rankings surge and he has an outside chance at the #1 spot within the organization. I won't bet against Halman, but he certainly warrants the Mike Cameron comparisons so many other power/speed players with high strikeout rates carry. While Cameron had a nice run as a #3/4 fantasy outfielder for a handful of years, few managers if any would cross their fingers hoping a player ends up being like that Mike.

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Sleeper Potential - Jon Gilmore, 3B, ATL

Ten years from now, a popular trivia question might be "which player was drafted by the Atlanta Braves between all-stars Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman in the 2007 draft?" As a supplemental 1st round pick, Jon Gilmore would be the correct answer.

Gilmore's reputation coming out of high school was that of a hitter with significant offensive potential, but rough around the edges. From my understanding, he did not participate in many national showcase events, and came on strong his senior season greatly upping his draft stock. However, with the lack of high level competition he faced, his transition to professional baseball was expected to be a little rocky. He didn't disappoint.

Age 18 - .286/.296/.346 in Rk
Age 19 - .173/.193/.173 in A-, .335/.363/.476 in Rk

Gilmore's less than stellar debut was followed by bombing at Rome which was made worse by Heyward and Freeman's explosive debuts in full season ball. However, he has rebounded nicely after his demotion and is currently posting a .455/.490/.614 August line after two, .300+ months.

Going forward, his stock will rise quickly should he continue his end of season surge. With the Braves still recovering from the Teixeira debacle, Gilmore could find himself in the top 10 Braves prospects entering 2009. While I would only recommend signing him in only the deepest of leagues, he should, and likely is on many prospect watch lists. Keep a watchful eye on him and be prepared to jump should he finish the year on a high note.

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Impress Your Buds - Angel Morales, OF, MIN

A 3rd round draft pick in 2007, Angel Morales was drafted by the Twins as a speedy outfielder whose toolbox was full, but needed significant polish.

I've been watching Morales for a couple of months and he looks to be turning a corner. During the month of June, his K/BB ratio was a miserable 16/1, but his July/August ratios have shown significant improvement (2.4/1). He has produced all season as evidenced by his .322/.428/.623 line, but his 57 strikeouts in 146 at bats are worrisome and will need significant improvement. Fortunately, Morales will be only 19 in November and still has time to fine tune his offensive approach.

Morales was signed last week in a league I participate in with 30 minors keepers so it's safe to say he is already a blip on many owners radars. My recommendation would be to sign him in the deepest of leagues with minors keepers and watch him closely in shallow leagues. He may be facing a position change with Ben Revere moving to the FSL next season and Aaron Hicks manning center in the Midwest League. With his cannon arm, Morales and either Revere or Hicks would make for an awfully impressive outfield tandem.

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Fatal Flaw? - J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR

J.P. Arencibia is receiving plenty of attention lately for his power surge (24 HR in A+ & AA) and his batters eye (13 BB in 428 AB.) While the home runs are impressive, the walk ratio is downright terrifying and will serve as an albatross around his neck as he moves up the ladder.

Take a look at these K/BB splits by level;

Rk - 56/14
A+ - 46/11
AA - 37/2

In comparison, baseball's most notorious "OBP offender," Jeff Francoeur, held a K/BB ratio of 264/89 or just less than 3 to 1 during his minor league career while Arencibia's currently sits at more than 5 to 1. One might say that Francoeur is an example of a player who overcame such bad ratios early on and achieved great success, but remember, Francoeur debuted for the Braves at 21 with Arencibia currently 22 and in AA. From age compared to level, common sense says Francoeur was a more talented player at the same age. Additionally, Arencibia's ratios should only get worse in the major leagues. One has to wonder just how effective a player in the bigs with a six or seven to one K/BB ratio? I found a few players who give a good indication. I say only a few because the sample size of everyday major leaguers posting such poor ratios is minuscule.

Adam Jones - .279/.320 @ 4.8/1
Jose Guillen - .259/.290 @ 5.7/1
Kevin Kouzmanoff - .270/.311 @ 5.9/1
Carlos Gomez - .257/.291 @ 6.2/1

Power aside, Arencibia can be expected to post a line of .265/.290 or so at the big league level with his current K/BB rate. For those numbers to support any fantasy significance, he needs to post at least a .450 slugging percentage which would put him in the company of only Brian McCann, Joe Mauer and Geovany Soto among current catchers. Other than Matt Wieters, I'm not sure I have that kind of confidence in any current minor league catching prospects. Arencibia is just too much of a gamble at this point and I would recommend avoiding him. If you currently own him, use his current hot streak to maximize his value and let somebody else take on the risk.

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Fatal Flaw? - Cody Johnson, OF, ATL

Cody Johnson entered the 2008 season as a borderline top 100 overall prospect. A former first rounder by the Atlanta Braves, Johnson's 2007 line of .305/.374/.630 had the organization excited about a potential breakout at Rome in his first full season assignment.

However, Johnson has been exposed by striking out a staggering 160 times in 397 at bats. I've read Adam Dunn comparisons since Johnson does have plus power potential as shown by his team leading 20 home runs after 17 last season, but people seem to forget that Dunn's career minor league line was .304/.415/.525 with a K/BB ratio of 270/230. MUCH better than Johnson's .258/.321/.483 line and K/BB ratio of 279/70. Dunn dominated at all levels of the minor leagues and was in the bigs at 21. Johnson is 19 and struggling to adjust in low A ball.

To compare Johnson to Dunn is a disservice to Adam Dunn. The Braves can only hope Johnson can turn it around and become half the prospect Dunn was and player he is. Unfortunately, his plate discipline seems too far gone for him to ever be an elite prospect and he will need to make significant improvements to continue to be considered a prospect period. People will continue to be enamored with his size and power potential, but I won't be. No amount of power can offset a 4 to 1 K/BB ratio.

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Sleeper Potential - Neil Ramirez, SP, TEX

I was sent a link to Neil Ramirez' prospect card yesterday by a friend asking me what I thought. At first glance, his numbers looked rather pedestrian as one might expect more from the 44th overall selection in the 2007 first year player draft. However, a second look has me thinking that the Texas Rangers have something special in Ramirez and a couple of adjustments could turn him into an elite prospect, and not a pitcher with a 3.70 ERA in 24 1/3 IP.

The Good -

1. 14 hits allowed/.167 BAA
   
2. 28 K's

The Bad -

1. 4 HR allowed (29% of total hits)
2. 17 BB's

With Ramirez supposedly able to dial it up north of 95 mph, the numbers indicate that he's not quite sure where it's going. The walks and home runs allowed show a pitcher falling behind 2-0, 3-1 on hitters and being forced to say "here, hit this" all too often; Learning the hard way that the addage "every pro can hit a fastball" is all too true. Even with a small sample size, 29% of total hits going for home runs is an insane number and makes me wonder whether or not he's letting up on his fastball just to get it over the plate causing it to flatten out.

The flip side is his averaging more than a strikeout per inning and holding opponents to a BAA of .167 showing frequent dominance. Both statistics indicate that Ramirez should be attacking hitters more often. Ramirez' curveball was ranked the best in the Rangers system and many pitchers make the mistake of falling in love with a good breaking pitch. Young pitchers frequently need to be reminded to keep it simple and Ramirez could benefit from following that advice.

Still a few years away, Ramirez should be on a minors watch list to see if his consistency and command issues work themselves out. He could gain value quickly as Rangers pitching prospects are receiving an awful lot of hype right now. Neil Ramirez may be the organizations best kept secret, but won't be for long.

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Sleeper Potential - Balbino Fuenmayor, 3B, TOR

International free agents who sign for $725,000 aren't supposed to be terrible are they? Unfortunately, that has been the case for the Toronto Blue Jays and Balbino Fuenmayor. Fuenmayor struggled in his debut to the tune of .174/.244/.242 with 68 K's in just 178 AB. While only 17 at the time, Fuenmayor looked like a bust when comparing his numbers to prospects who received smaller bonuses.

Engel Beltre - .243/.329/.433 in Rk ($600,000 Bonus)
Oscar Tejeda - .296/.345/.394 in Rk ($525,000 Bonus)

Both Beltre and Tejeda were promoted to full season ball as 18 year olds and have become top 10 prospects in their respective organizations. In comparison, Fuenmayor's struggles have him repeating rookie level ball causing him to be forgotten as a prospect.

However, All is not lost for Fuenmayor as he currently has a .282/.362/.400 overall line while his walk rate has jumped by 4% and his strikeout rate has fallen by 9%. Obviously, not great numbers, but a vast improvement over 2007. With these splits he's beginning to blossom.

June - .172/.265/.207
July - .325/.398/.481

Remember, Justin Jackson and John Tolisano are both a year older and considered top 10 prospects in the organization so Fuenmayor's development is about the same as if he were recently drafted. At $725,000, he received a similar bonus to many 2nd round draft picks and has value when viewed in that light. IFA's are often forgotten if they don't make an immediate impact early on in professional baseball allowing many quality players like Fuenmayor to slip through the cracks.

Keep an eye on him going forward as he should be added to watch lists. I wouldn't recommend adding him yet in even the deepest of leagues featuring minors at this point with the amateur draft recently ended, the IFA period in progress and the opportunity to sign players with more name value. Remember the name though, as a hot August could quickly get him noticed and may even land him a spot on a few Blue Jays top 10 prospect lists.

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Can This Guy Play? - Carlos Santana, C, CLE

With Matt Wieters casting an enormous shadow over the catching position in minor league baseball, not much is being said about Carlos Santana and his breakthrough season in both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Indians organizations. Dealt with Jonathan Meloan to the Indians for Casey Blake, continued success is showing his offensive explosion may not be due to the California league after all. However, questions concerning Santana's being 22 and his recent move behind the plate muddy his status as a top prospect.

Santana was signed four years ago as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic. His American debut was in 2005 and he has played in the lower minors since. Let's take a look at Santana's statistics;

Age 19 - .295/.412/.410 in Rk
Age 20 - .282/.379/.436 between Rk and A+
Age 21 - .223/.318/.370 in A-
Age 22 - .327/.430/.565 in A+

Obviously what sticks out like a sore thumb is Santana's abysmal age 21 season. His lack of offense coincides with his switch from third base to catcher which explains a great deal. With catcher being the most cerebral position on the field, it is easy to be overwhelmed by its intricacies to the point where offensive output suffers. Additionally, the bumps and bruises of playing the position can lead to having to alter ones batting stance or hand position in order to compensate for bruised and swollen body parts that would cause many to take a day or two off. As a former offensive minded college catcher whose head coach wanted me to focus all of my energy on improving my blocking, the damage does take its toll and my average took close to a 100 point hit because of it. Santana was likely no different.

With Santana apparently settling in behind the dish, he's closing in on a promotion to AA and the true test of his prospect status. Success should put to rest the offensive questions concerning age compared to the league he's playing in, as well as what role the California League played in his explosion. However, in the league I'm a member of, I was unable to wait to have those questions answered and had to sign him while he was still under the radar. With his being traded, he is no longer an unknown and many are starting to ask questions about what to expect as the Cleveland Indians catcher of the future.

Obviously 55 XBH to date and more walks than strikeouts are great indicators of future success, but should one temper expectations somewhat because of the hitters environment he comes from and his age? On a whim I looked up the minor league numbers of Victor Martinez, the Indians current catcher and saw similarities. Both were 22 during their A+ seasons and held similar batting averages. Santana had better OBP and SLG numbers (product of Cal League?) while both walking and striking out more. Additionally, like Santana, Martinez' defensive ability leaves questions as to whether he can stick at the position.

Martinez took off during his age 23 season with a .336/.413/.576 line which will be hard for Santana to follow. Few would go out on a limb and predict Santana's power remain consistent from A+ to AA. A safe bet for Santana would be to predict future lines of .285/.370/.430 and a career as a solid MLB starting catcher. Can he be more though? Personally, I'm not about to bet against the Indians ability to find and deal for quality catchers with offensive ability. They discovered Martinez, dealt for Max Ramirez before shipping him to Texas, and now have Kelly Shoppach looking like a 25 home run catcher if given 500 at bats. This bodes well for Santana not only meeting, but exceeding expectations. As for the safe bet, I'll go with the over with the belief that the Indians are to catching prospects what the Braves are to pitching prospects.

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Impress Your Buds - Lance Lynn, SP, STL

Currently the hottest pitcher from the 2008 draft class, Lance Lynn has combined for a 1.14 ERA and 25 K in 23 2/3 IP. Recently promoted to full season ball, he could climb quickly through the St. Louis Cardinals system following recent draft picks Jesse Todd and Clayton Mortensen up the ladder.

Lynn was drafted 39th overall in the supplemental first round. From the University of Mississippi, his polish, along with his SEC pedigree mean that he should cruise into AA by the end of the 2009 season. He currently projects as a solid #3 starter and at 6'5", 250 lbs. I can see why. During his final year with Mississippi, his ERA was an unimpressive 4.52, but his 110 K and 90 hits allowed in 89 2/3 innings pitched is solid in a conference often mentioned as the best in college baseball.

Going forward, he's a good pitcher to grab in the hopes of a perfect storming coming on. That storm being the opportunity for Lynn to post gaudy numbers as an advanced pitcher in the lower levels and the Cardinals propensity for moving college pitchers through the system rapidly. He could gain hype for the next year and provide for a great return on investment if you league allows deep minor league systems and prospect trading. With him likely sitting in your league unsigned, he shouldn't be for long. Jump on him and if you have fifteen or more minors spots with the idea of turning him at next years deadline after he builds value. Even if you decide to keep him, he may very well end up being the first starting pitcher from the 2008 draft class to debut in the bigs.

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Can This Guy Play? - Dallas McPherson, 3B, FLA

I have to admit I became rather excited when I heard that a Bengie Molina for Mike Jacobs trade was possible before the trade deadline. After a couple of years of waiting, I wanted to see what Dallas McPherson could do playing everyday. I had even signed him to my minor league roster in a fantasy league thinking that if Adam Dunn can go for $46 at auction, McPherson is a great value at a buck!

Unfortunately, the trade never went down and McPherson is left to continue mashing AAA pitching while waiting for September 1st and a chance steal a few at bats from Mike Jacobs and Jorge Cantu.

Many believed McPherson, a former 2nd round pick by the Anaheim Angels would be a star by now, but injuries derailed the once promising prospect leaving him to sign a contract with the Florida Marlins on the promise of an open competition for the third base job. At the end of spring training, McPherson was sent packing to AAA since he still had an option left and the Marlins would have likely lost Jorge Cantu had he been exposed to waivers.

Fast forward four months and McPherson is leading minor league baseball in home runs and has lined himself up for a shot to start at third base for somebody in 2009. However, questions still remain about his ability to hit major league pitching and while he has been healthy in 2008, his previous back injury is worrisome as the lower back muscles are a key component in creating the torque that creates bat speed.

McPherson's minor league stats are as follows;

Age 20 - .395/.441/.605 in Rookie League
Age 21 - .277/..374/.427 with 30 SB in A-
Age 22 - .310/.401/.596 with 16 SB between A+ and AA
Age 23 - .317/.384/.670 with 12 SB between AA and AAA
Age 24 - .308/.380/.734 in AAA (79 AB due to time in MLB)
Age 25 - .250/.307/.596 in AAA (208 AB due to inj. & time in MLB)
Age 26 - Injured
Age 27 - .299/.409/.687 with 13 SB in AAA

MLB Totals - .247/.294/.461 in 360 AB's between 2004-2006

McPherson's minor league totals reflect a player with immense power whose inability to make contact is a major problem. His K/BB ratios have worsened at each step up the ladder peaking with a 169 K season in 2004. His 2007 strikeout totals are similarly worrisome with 129 thus far with 30 or so games left to play. However, his sleeper 10 stolen base speed provide an added fantasy boost at a position where steals are difficult to come by. At 27, he is what he is although he does receive a temporary pass over a player like Nelson Cruz who is also dominating AAA, but hasn't missed development time due to injury.

Going forward, McPherson can definitely be a 30+ home run threat, but his other numbers may end up a little ugly. Think somewhere between Jack Cust and Adam Dunn. However, for a team in need of a corner infielder, one could definitely do worse than .250/.320/.470 from the six hole. He should also be a solid 2009 fantasy baseball sleeper for a buck as his advanced age and proven ability to hit for power in the bigs makes him a safer play than at least a handful of young corner infielders who will go for more at auction time.

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Pirates on the Right Path; Buying Low & Selling High for a Change!

Is the world coming to an end? It must be since I find myself writing a piece about the Pittsburgh Pirates making savvy deadline moves and acquiring quite a bit of talent at the trade deadline for Xavier Nady, Jason Bay and Damaso Marte; Three players who were not going to be around when the Pirates become competitive again.

All in all, the Pirates netted eight prospects inluding;

Craig Hansen, RP - Former 2005 1st round pick and supposed Boston Red Sox closer of the future pre-Papelbon. Hansen possesses a mid 90's fastball and a sometimes plus slider. However, he has been ineffective more often than not and a change of scenery should do him a great deal of good.

Andy LaRoche, 3B - Discussed in my previous blog entry, LaRoche held an APR of #20 overall entering the season and was the Los Angeles Dodgers consensus #2 prospect. A torn thumb ligament in spring training cost him his opportunity to be the Dodgers opening day third baseman and the Casey Blake trade signaled that his Dodgers days were numbered. With a fresh start, he can become a top 5 player at the position in the NL.

Jeff Karstens, P - Karstens has the least upside of any of the players received in this deal. At best, he's a back of the rotation/long reliever type who should eat innings at the major league level and projects as no worse that what the Pirates are currently sending to the mound most days.

Daniel McCutchen, P - Another back of the rotation/long reliever possibility, McCutchen entered 2008 and Baseball America's #14 Yankees prospect. In 300 career minor league innings his ERA sits an impressive 2.79 with a WHIP of 1.09. He has been old for his level at just about every stop leaving his numbers a bit deceiving.

Bryan Morris, SP - Another former first round pick, Morris has recovered nicely from Tommy John surgery and has an ERA of 3.20 while averaging almost a strikeout per inning. The pitcher with the most projection of the lot, his mid 90's fastball seems to be back and he could take off as early as next season.

Brandon Moss, OF - Moss impressed the Red Sox faithful by posting a .295/.337/.462 line bouncing between AAA and the big club. He doesn't have much projection, but a few of his 41 doubles in 2007 have turned into home runs at the AAA level as he has averaged about a home run every twenty at bats in 2008 compared to one every thirty at bats during the 2007 campaign. strikeouts are a concern however and could keep him from eclipsing seasons averages of .260-.270 with 15-18 home runs. With improved plate discipline, I can see him as a .270-.280 hitter with a few seasons approaching 25 long balls.

Ross Ohlendorf, P - If one thing can be said about Ohlendorf, it's that he has a healthy arm unlike so many other Pirates prospects. He hasn't been great at any level of the minors and his 6+ ERA in a little less than 50 IP is unimpressive. However, he's another arm that will give the Pirates some quality appearances between catastrophic outings which is better than can be said for a few of their "reliable" starters.

Jose Tabata, OF - With an overall APR of 35.25 and a New York Yankees APR of 3 on prospect lists entering 2008, Tabata had taken a slight hit from the previous years rankings. Since then, his prospect ranking has tanked between injuries, lack of production, and run ins with the Yankees organization. Desperately needing a fresh start, he will still only be 20 at the start of next season. With plenty of time to develop, he still has the tools to become a star.

In reviewing the names above, I can comfortably say that at least six of the eight players were dealt for much less than they would have been a season or two ago. While some would say that the return for arguably the Pirates three most valuable trade pieces wasn't impressive, I would argue that buying low and acquiring a greater number of prospects than they might have otherwise is a great strategy to employ for an organization with a thin minor league system and in a position to take chances.

Additionally, both Bay and Nady held significantly less value at this time last season making the Pirates cashing in their chips at the right time that much more impressive. See for yourself;

Xavier Nady
.278/.330/.476 in 2007
.328/.385/.535 in 2008

Jason Bay

.247/.327/.418 in 2007
.282/.375/.519 in 2008

Give Neil Huntington a ton of credit for following up a solid 2008 draft with the addition of two, pre-season top 40 prospects and two more former 1st round picks. Adding players with pedigree is never a bad thing. While the three other players involved will never be stars, they should help to successfully bridge the gap between the current and future pirates and allow players like their top prospects to develop without having to be rushed.

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