F-Mart was the unquestionable gem of the Mets system during both the 2006 and 2007 seasons. An international free agent who signed for 1.4 million, the bar has been set phenomenally high from day one. Entering 2008, his average prospect ranking of 25.25 earned him a spot as one of the best prospects in all of baseball. However, injuries limited Martinez to ninety games once again costing him valuable development time. His 2006 and 2007 seasons were both shortened due to injury as well.
Martinez enters 2009 sharing the Mets prospect spotlight with Wilmer Flores and even ranked 2nd behind him on my 2009 Mets top prospect list. His overall prospect ranking will undoubtedly drop until he shows both durability and improved power production. Unnecessarily rushed through the Mets organization, a repeat of AA at 20 might be just what Martinez needs to really break out in a big way.
Stud?
In a future piece for my blog, Martinez will be included as a prospect primed for a big season who may be available in deep dynasty leagues at a discount. F-Mart, like so many other international free agents has been slow to show the 25-30 home run power projection he is expected to produce. Many forget his being just 19 and focus solely on his .281/.338/.429 career stat line.
With that said, his 2008 line of .287/.340/.432 is quite impressive for a teenager in AA. In comparison, here's what other Mets stars were doing at the same age.
Carlos Beltran - .249/.332/.393 in both A- and A+
Carlos Delgado - .286/.397/.458 in A- (0-3 in A+ not included)
Jose Reyes - .307/.336/.472 in A-
David Wright - .266/.364/.401 in A-
Not only is Martinez a level or two ahead of the Mets uber-talented core at the same age, but his numbers are arguably more impressive as well. With AA being the true make or break level for most prospects, anything accomplished in A- ball has to be taken with a grain of salt.
Other metrics also point towards future success. His 20.7 K% and 7.3 BB% show a need for improvement, but also indicate his not being overwhelmed by advanced pitching. His BABIP of .343 was a little high, but nothing that would set off alarm bells either. Historically, the international prospects who fail miserable at the big league level are players who display a complete lack of plate discipline. F-Mart definitely does not fit this profile.
The argument over F-Mart basically comes down to one thing; Age versus level. Depending on how big a factor it is in each person's mind will determine where F-Mart fits in. Since it is the first thing I consider when looking at prospects, I can not justify an overall drop in prospect ranking beyond the mid to low 30's. I also look at his keeping his head above water in AA after only 120 or so games as a pro and am left shaking my head in disbelief.
With that said, the Mets need to make better decisions on how to handle Martinez from 2009 on. My time line for Martinez would look like this.
2009 - AA 1st half, AAA promotion depends on health and success. Martinez needs to dominate somewhere and should remain in AA until he does.
2010 - AAA until September with a possible call up when rosters expand. This would be the absolute earliest the Mets should even consider giving him a taste of the bigs.
2011 - Opportunity to win a corner outfield spot in spring training. Log consistent at bats in AAA until he's ready to play everyday in New York. F-Mart is too good a prospect to log bench time at the big league level.
Dud?
I must admit I did not know much about Fernando Martinez before I started this piece, other than his being both a very highly ranked and hyped prospect. He's the consensus Mets #1 prospect, so I just assumed he had the statistics to back that up. You know the saying when you assume and this is certainly the case here. I looked at his stats and the first thing that came to mind was "WHAT AM I MISSING HERE?" I understand his being 19 years old and in AA last season, which is almost unheard of. I also understand his status as the Mets top prospect, which automatically makes him over hyped. An APR (Average Prospect Ranking) of around 25th overall says he's one of the top prospects in baseball, but why?
It's easy to see by looking at his statistics that the Mets are rushing him through the minors. Imagine that, the Mets rushing a prospect. Why do the Mets insist on letting F-Mart tread water at higher levels instead of tearing up easier levels prior to promoting when ready to tear up the next level? There's no doubt F-Mart has the potential to be a star, so why risk rushing him and stunting his development?
F-Mart has also been hampered by injuries. He's had the Hamate bone removed in his wrist in 2007 and a bad hamstring in 2008 which cost him significant playing time. He's missed the equivalent of a full seasons worth of at-bats in three years as a pro.
Click here to view what Fernando Martinez' career line could look like.
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