The Mets are in a period of transition from the look of their minor league organization. After a handful of arguably disastrous drafts, the Mets have been busy signing top international talent and have focused on drafting top college talent in the hope of providing a quick organizational fix while their top tier teens develop. This leaves a very tough organization in terms of ranking players. Each prospect has legitimate question marks and many would not be in other teams top 20's. With that said, my rankings are based on a combination of production, age versus level, pedigree, and perceived ceiling.
One notable exclusion is Ruben Tejada, the Mets slick fielding shortstop prospect. While none doubt the glove, .229/.293/.296 with a .588 OPS looks like the reincarnation of Rafael Santana. I just can't being myself to include a player who lives and dies off of one tool.
1. Wilmer Flores - SS
At 17, his hype is compared to that of Triunfel and Andrus only Flores is already showing power potential. With comparisons to Miggy Cabrera already being made, expectations for him are enormous. Hopefully, the Mets will allow him to move one level at a time and avoid the mistakes made with F-Mart.
Grade - B+
2. Fernando Martinez - OF
At 19, F-Mart's performance in AA was a mixed bag. His .292/.345/.440 line was solid, but scouts still wonder when the power is going to begin to show in game situations? At this point, Martinez seems an injury free season away from really breaking out. He's the one player on this list with the best chance of reaching A status by this time next year.
Grade - B+
3. Jon Niese - SP
Niese was the Mets fastest rising prospect on the mound during the 2008 season. However, Mets fans tend to overrate him because of this fact. He's projected to fall somewhere in between Brian Bannister and John Maine statistically and receives an additional bump for being lefty. 2009 could be a tough year for him should he break camp as the Mets #5.
Grade - B-
4. Bradley Holt - P
Take Holt's fastball and Niese' breaking pitches and you would have the top prospect in the Mets system. Unfortunately for the Mets, this isn't the case. For a college pitcher, his secondary offerings are underdeveloped leaving scouts split on whether he ends up in the pen or rotation. I can see a scenario where Holt winds up the Mets closer and dominates. The path of least resistance may be the way to go.
Grade - B-
5. Jefry Marte - 3B
First discussed here, Marte finished 2008 with a .325/.398/.532 line. He should be receiving more hype, but the performance of Flores has overshadowed the rest of the Mets 2007 IFA class. He has the most "helium" potential system wide and could see his prospect stock rise more than any other player in the organization with a productive 2009.
Grade - B-
6. Eddie Kunz - RP
It can be argued that Kunz has disappointed since being drafted in the supplemental 1st round in 2007. With 27 saves in AA, his season could be viewed as a success on save totals alone. However, so-so peripherals have tempered expectations dropping his stock some. Kunz may break spring training in the Mets pen, but AAA would be a good place for him to hone his craft if the Mets still consider him to have closer potential.
Grade - C+
7. Reese Havens - INF
Projected as an average defensive second baseman with plus power potential, Havens showed pop in Brooklyn with eleven extra base hits in eighty-five at bats. However, his balky elbow kept him from playing the field and rumors have surfaced of his possibly needing Tommy John surgery. Should he prove healthy and spend 2009 manning second in the FSL with a late season promotion to the Eastern League, Havens could make a push into the top five within the organization and the top six to eight second base prospects in all of baseball.
Grade - C+
8. Nick Evans - OF/1B
Originally excluded do to service time, I figured since the big three prospect publications are including Evans, I might as well follow suit. Evans slides into the spot vacated by the trade of Mike Carp which is fitting since both may wind up being similar players. After putting up a .311/.365/.561 line in AA, Evans wasn't completely overwhelmed in his Mets debut which is a great sign for the 22-year old. He does need more AAA seasoning though and will hopefully find himself in AAA gaining valuable playing experience until his number is called by the Mets once again.
Grade - C+
9. Cesar Puello - OF
Carlos Gomez part two? Everything about him seems eerily familiar. Only Puello's first taste of baseball in the lower forty-eight was even more successful. The only knock on Puello is he may profile as more of a corner outfielder than a center fielder. With speed to burn and the size to project a little power, he's the third 2007 international free agent to crack the top ten.
Grade - C+
10. Ike Davis - 1B
How much should a disappointing debut overshadow a dominating college career, first round draft pick, and major league pedigree? Enough to warrant his barely cracking the top ten. At another position, a .652 OPS in Brooklyn would be less concerning, but as a first baseman expected to mash, his debut was troubling.
Grade - C+
11. Scott Moviel - SP
Still a project, his 2008 season in which he posted solid, but unspectacular numbers across the board was more of a success than his peripherals would indicate. With continued progress in 2009, the 6'11" right hander could crack the top five in the organization and become the high ceiling pitching prospect the Mets are looking for.
Grade - C+
12. Bobby Parnell - P
Maybe the most overrated prospect in the organization by Mets fans, Parnell is a decent prospect with limited upside. His peripherals have been nothing more than average since reaching AA. At 24, his taking a significant step forward is unlikely. Parnell could be a productive swing starter or bullpen arm, but expecting much more is more a product of hope than projection.
Grade - C+
13. Dillon Gee - SP
Boosted by his small, but dominating four start sample in AA, Gee is the most advanced of their 2007 small college pitching crop. His ceiling is limited, but continued success could lead to him becoming a number four or five starter. Quite an accomplishment for a 21st rounder.
Grade - C+
14. Jenrry Mejia - P
A finalist for best fastball in the organization, Mejia is an intriguing high ceiling prospect. However, he's also a project as his violent delivery and lack of secondary offerings leave many without a clue of where he fits into the big picture. His numbers as a teenager (2.89 ERA 8+ K/9) between the GCL and Brooklyn demand recognition. His prospect status could either shoot through the moon or crash with a thud by this time next year.
Grade - C+
15. Francisco Pena - C
From watching Pena in person, his catching skills are impressive. His bat is an entirely different story. Plagued by poor pitch selection, his OBP is under .300 for his career and his slugging percentage is reminiscent of a slap hitting shortstop. With that said, his age (18), major league pedigree, and size earn him a mulligan until then end of the 2009 season.
Grade - C+
16. Michael Antonini - SP
In moving three levels during the 2008 season, Antonini deserves a ranking ahead of a number of pitchers in the organization with better stuff, but far less success. Going forward, he's another small college pitchability guy whose low ground ball percentage suggests this lefty will struggle at higher levels.
Grade C
17. Scott Shaw - SP
One of many recent small college pitching prospects drafted by the Mets, Shaw is looking like a steal in the 13th round. His success in Brooklyn has carried into the Hawaiian Winter League, but the 6'5" right handers mediocre ground ball percentage is a red flag.
Grade - C
18. Brant Rustich - RP
A former 2nd round pick, Rustich faces a make or break 2009 season after injuries sidetracked what was turning into a productive 2008. His fractured elbow seems to sound much worse than the injury actually was from reports and he should be healthy entering 2009.
Grade - C
19. Kyle Allen - P
A 2-way player in high school, Allen brings athleticism and upside to an organization which desperately needs it. Drafted in the 24th round after a free fall due to a strong commitment to North Carolina State, he could find himself in the top 10 on this list next season.
Grade - C
20. Robert Carson - P
With a 1.68 ERA split between both Mets rookie league organizations, Carson showed better control in the GCL which led to his being downright dominating. With continued progress in full season ball, the 6'3", 220 pound lefty could push the top ten next winter.
Grade - C
An assumption most make when researching prospects is that one teams 20th best player is just as good as any other teams. Make no mistake. Most of prospects in the bottom five of the Mets top 20 would miss the cut in a majority of other organizations.
Overall, the Mets system is vastly improved from this time last year, but I'm not sure that's saying much. Much of their top tier talent is either extremely young or unproven at higher levels. With that said, the Mets minor league system still ranks in the bottom half (maybe even bottom third) of the league. However, the Mets have found a number of high ceiling talents in Latin America and are coming off of their best draft in years. Another decent draft and a few more quality international players and the Mets could find themselves in the top dozen minor league organizations by this time next year.
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