Projected 2009 Lineup (Best Case Scenario Inc. Holes to Fill)
1. Jose Reyes, SS
2. FA/Trade
3. David Wright, 3B
4. Carlos Beltran, CF
5. Carlos Delgado, 1B
6. FA/Trade
7. Daniel Murphy, 2B/LF
8. Brian Schneider, C
9. Pitcher
This lineup reflects each player hitting in in a spot which allows them to be at least major average if not better. Is there any doubt this team should be a playoff team with enough talent to reach the World Series, if not win it? Let's be honest. It's a damn good 75% of a starting eight. Murphy as an option in either left field or second base allows the Mets the flexibility to sign two outfielders, or a second basemen and outfielder. Keeping Church as a fourth outfielder adds depth and Mets fans will certainly cross their collective fingers in the hope Castillo is not back in 2009. Castro, Chavez, and Co. are serviceable off the bench where not much turnover is needed.
Options Outside the Organization (Lineup #1)
Bobby Abreu, OF - .290/.370/.460 and 20 stolen bases would fit nicely in the two spot. Would he be willing to move across town and back into the NL East to wreak havoc on the Phillies nineteen times per season?
Rocco Baldelli, OF - Oft-injured, but a lifetime .281/.325/.445 when able to play, a move to left may help to keep him healthy. At 27, he could be a low risk/high reward option and a discount through his prime.
Milton Bradley, OF - Only 30, it seems as if Bradley has been around forever. A likely bet for .310/.415/.550, he's one of the best hitters in baseball if he can only log enough games to warrant being counted on. He would be a less expensive option than Abreu in the two hole and will sign for less because of injury concerns.
Pat Burrell, LF - Similar to Dunn, he can be counted on to chip in a line of .255/.385/.500 and can likely be had for less years and cash than Dunn will require. What better way to beat the Phillies than to take one of their big bats.
Adam Dunn, LF- At 29, Dunn is what he is. A .245/.385/.520 who would fit in this scenario as an all or nothing six hole hitter capable of picking up the slack when the streaky Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado struggle.
Orlando Hudson, 2B - One of surest players at second base, Hudson plays gold glove caliber defense and is a sure bet for .295/.370/.450. He would fit nicely in the two hole.
Raul Ibanez, LF - With nearly two identical seasons of .290/.355/.480, he's not a perfect fit in either the two or six hole, but his ability to drive in big runs would be a welcome addition. The Mets should have dealt for him at the deadline.
Manny Ramirez, LF - Arguably the best hitter of the past fifteen years, Ramirez has set himself up for one more big contract after carrying the Dodgers to the playoffs with a .396/.489/.743 line. His addition would force Beltran and Delgado down a spot in the order.
Sleepers - Jerry Hairston Jr., Juan Rivera, Ray Durham
Wild Cards - Ichiro may be available via trade. Andruw Jones for Luis Castillo straight up? Each has 18 million in money due to them.
Projected Pitching Staff (Best Case Scenario Inc. Holes to Fill)
SP1 - Johan Santana
SP2 - FA/Trade
SP3 - John Maine
SP4 - Mike Pelfrey
SP5 - Aaron Heilman
RP - Scott Schoeneweis
RP - Pedro Feliciano
RP - Joe Smith
RP - Duaner Sanchez
RP - Eddie Kunz
SU - FA/Trade
CL - FA/Trade
The addition of a 200+ inning workhorse will be key for the success of the rotation. Maine will hopefully be back at full strength. Pelfrey will enter the season as a pitcher who could quickly rise through the National League starting pitcher ranks. Heilman is in the rotation because I'll never agree to selling low on a player with talent. Niese will likely break spring training in the rotation, but I would play it safe with him as the Mets are really in no need to rush him.
As for the pen, I'm comfortable with all four pitchers listed, but concede a major upgrade in the 8th and 9th is needed. While throwing a pot of gold at K-Rod would be both an overreaction and mistake, the Mets obviously need to do something.
Options Outside the Organization
Derek Lowe - One of the most underrated starters in the game, he's a lock for 200+ innings and an ERA under four. He still has a few years left in the tank to boot.
C.C. Sabathia - Arguably the gem of the 2009 free agent class, He will command an enormous sum. However, with his being the true definition of a workhorse, his addition would instantly make a C.C./Johan combination the premiere 1-2 punch in baseball.
Of the other available free agent starters, I do not trust any of them to remain healthy through the life of a long term deal. With starting pitching options being limited, the Mets will have to act quickly and lock one of these pitchers up.
Juan Cruz - By finishing the 2008 campaign with a 2.61 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 12.4 K/9, Cruz would be a nice fit in an 8th inning role with the Mets.
Brian Fuentes - With similar peripherals to K-Rod and half the saves, Fuentes could be signed for less than half the cost. At 33, he has a few seasons left in the tank and and could likely be had for 3 years, 30 million instead of the 75-90 million K-Rod would cost.
Trevor Hoffman - Arguably the greatest closer in the history of baseball, Hoffman and his 554 saves would serve a two fold purpose for the Mets. One, he could close for a year. Two, he can mentor either Joe Smith or Eddie Kunz for the closer spot in 2010. Hoffman has had a remarkable career, but a World Series ring has eluded him.
Kerry Wood - A successful conversion to closer has Wood in line to close either in Chicago or with another franchise. His peripherals were solid, and his arm remained healthy putting him in line for a multi-year deal. He's another risk/reward play, but he's another closer who won't be able to demand more than a 2-3 year pact.
Brandon Lyon - An interesting option in that he closed in 2008, but was better as a set up man in 2007, Lyon's versatility and his being just 28 make him a relatively safe long term play. He's not an exciting choice, but he would be a great fit as a set up man and emergency closer.
In all, the Mets have about thirty million coming off the books with the team picking up Delgado's option. With a new stadium and additional revenue, let's assume they can sink 30-45 into signing free agents without making any trades. In choosing from the above options, and projecting contract terms based on value and comparable players, my 2009 Mets additions would be as follows.
Pat Burrell - 3 years, 36 million
Trevor Hoffman - 1 year, 6 million
Orlando Hudson - 3 years, 21 million
Derek Lowe - 3 years, 36 million
Brandon Lyon - 4 years, 20 million
Total - 42 million
This group of players compliments the Mets roster well on many levels. Hudson, and his phenomenal defense instantly improves the entire staff. Lowe's sinker and workhorse mentality help take pressure off the rest of a fragile staff. Burrell settles into the number six hole and spends the next three seasons doing his damage for the Mets and not to them. He also instantly shifts the balance of power in the NL East back to the Mets by simply subtracting his bat from the Phils. Lyon sets up Hoffman and provides a solid second option should Hoffman need a day off here and there because of his advanced age. Hoffman in turn mentors Smith/Kunz and prepares one of them to be the long term answer in New York. It's not a romantic group, but the Mets need to spend money responsibly and in a way that helps bridge the current Mets team with the future of the franchise. Just look across town for an example of what happens when a franchise throws unlimited amounts of money at a roster. Follow the Red Sox blueprint of responsible spending and player development and the Mets will be the team to beat in the east for years to come.
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9 comments:
It looks like you've suggested signing 5 Type A/Type B free agents...
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like teams will only be allowed to sign 3 players this offseason. This is true, regardless of whether or not teams offer arbitration to their free agents.
I don't think your plan is possible, but please post back if you think it is for some reason.
Here's how it would be possible:
Based on last year's thin free agent class, the Mets would have been able to sign three guys off the bat.
Additionally, Oliver Perez and Pedro Martinez should both be type A/B guys giving the Mets two additional players to sign.
This is how I came up with the five total guys.
I'm still trying to figure this FA stuff out, but I found some info on the web that reads as follows:
"If there are 14 or fewer Type A or Type B free agents available, no team can sign more than one type A or B player. If there are between 15-38, no team can sign more than two. If there are between 39 and 62, there's a limit of three. However, teams can sign as many Type A or B free agents as they've lost, regardless of the limits above."
The important part is the last sentence. I take this to mean that if, for instance, the Mets lost 6 Type A/B players, they could then sign 6 Type A/B free agents. They would not be entitled to sign an extra 1, 2, or 3 based on the limits.
Your rationale suggests that if the Mets lost 6 Type A/B players, they would then be allowed to sign 6 (to compensate for the lost players) + 3 (as mandated by the rules). Do you know your rationale to be 100% accurate? I'm not accusing you of being wrong, I'm just not sure myself.
Thanks
Mike,
I don't think you read my followup comment too closely. I was asking if your rationale behind the Mets' ability to sign 5 Type A/B free agents was 100% correct.
Second, I'm a big fan of Dunn's. It wasn't a swipe at Dunn, I was acknowledging that many people flat out HATE Dunn. I don't think he should be a top priority, but he will be undervalued this offseason so I think he's worth a look, especially if LF isn't addressed by December/January.
I put together my own FA suggestions that I'm about to post, but I wanted to make sure that my understanding of the Type A/B free agent system was correct. Again, are you sure your rationale is 100% correct?
If there are between 39 and 62, there's a limit of three. However, teams can sign as many Type A or B free agents as they've lost, regardless of the limits above."
I look at it as 3+ however many they lose. While I'm not 100% positive, I found the same info and it seems pretty straightforward.
You are making me think though and I hate thinking on Sunday's. ha ha ha!
Haha, OK. I emailed a couple NY sportswriters who are pretty good about answering emails for clarification. I just don't want to make my prepared post then find out my rationale is wrong.
Keep up the good work, and maybe next time I'll email to avoid these back and forth comments interactions, ha.
I think we should make a free agent calculator based on the rules. I wish I knew how to program! It could be a big hit!
Mike,
Good job on evaluating the Mets off season. It will be an interesting off season for them. New stadium and some depressing recent outcomes. Here are my views:
1) I do not see Church being happy as a 4th outfielder. He's young and before his injury was one of the Mets better hitters. I think he would have come into the season as the starter (with the occasional sitting vs a lefty) or have to be traded if the Mets do not see him in their future as a starter.
2) I think Heilman will not get his chance to start for the Mets. I believe he will finally be traded to a team (like the A's) and they'll give him that chance that he's always wanted. He's worn out his welcome as a Met and they should get what they can for him. I think Niese will handle the 5th spot.
3) I think that Orlando Hudson is the answer at 2B and the 2nd spot in the lineup. Derek Lowe would be a nice signing as a proven big game winner.
4)Hoffman is overrated and has very few big saves in his career. Mariano is the greatest closer of all time and there isn't much of an argument.
Do you see Fernando Martinez in the majors at some point next season?
Great post Czar. I really can't argue with any of what you said. Obviously what I think should happen from a baseball standpoint and what will happen to satisfy disappointed Mets fans will be different.
As for F-Mart, I've moved from undecided to bullish on him based on his partial season in AA. At 20, F-Mart should repeat AA and Mets fans need to cross their fingers and hope for a healthy season. IMO, he still needs at least another full season of development time before he should even be considered for a spot. The Mets should have learned their lessons from Milledge and Gomez.
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