Can Kunz Close in 2009?

August 2, 2008 may have been Billy Wagner's last time taking the mound as an elite closer in the major leagues. Unfortunately for the Mets, Wagner will continue to receive an elite closer paycheck through the entire 2009 season while he rehabs from Tommy John surgery in the hopes of returning strong in 2010. However, his return isn't likely to be with the Mets as Eddie Kunz is supposed be closing in New York by 2010. What happens until then though? The Mets spending high draft picks on more relievers than I can count was supposed to prepare them for this right? Why then do I feel as if the Mets will need to find somebody outside of the organization for next season? What are the chances Kunz will seize the roll in spring training? Additionally, who could fill the void should he fail?

Eddie Kunz was the 42nd overall pick in the 2007 amateur draft out of Oregon State. Coming off an NCAA championship with Oregon State where he served as a shut down closer, he was billed as a near ready major league reliever who would be the Mets closer sooner rather than later. Drafted ahead of potential impact players Michael Burgess (WAS), Neil Ramirez (TEX), Michael Stanton (FLA), and Freddie Freeman (ATL), Omar Minaya took a calculated risk in drafting Kunz to an organization whose minor league system included very few high ceiling players. For this to pay off, Kunz has to become the closer and achieve significant success. His 2008 season to date has included 27 saves in AA, but his peripherals show a reliever who has underachieved and whose struggles in both AAA and with the Mets may be a sign of things to come. I'd put Kunz' odds of breaking spring training as the Mets closer at about 20%. Any 6'5", 265 lb. closer who strikes out less than a batter per inning and sports a K/BB ratio of less than 2/1 sets off alarm bells in my head. His numbers just do not indicate a pitcher ready to take the reins as a closer in a major media market.

This leaves us weighing other options currently with the Mets;

Joe Smith was another early round draft pick spent on a reliever in 2006. With this being his 2nd year in the bigs after being a 3rd round pick, he has been a great find for the mets. However, his peripherals indicate a good, but not great reliever who will likely be out of his element as a closer at the big league level. I put his chances at about 15%.

Duaner Sanchez will be a free agent after the season and may have to play with another one year contract to prove his arm strength is all the way back after a recent dip in velocity. With his full repertoire, he could compete for the closer role should he re-sign, but his needing to both sign and regain his lost velocity put his chances of closing at about 10%.

As an Aaron Heilman apologist, even I'm not willing to give him much of a chance to be the teams closer in 2009. With the possibility of both Pedro Martinez and Oliver Perez leaving via free agency, this may be Heilman's chance to return to the rotation where I've always felt he should be. With that said, his chance to close is 5%.

Should Luis Ayala return to the Mets and not leave via free agency, I would also give him a 5% chance to close. His career numbers and time missed due to injury are similar to Duaner Sanchez, but Sanchez has had better success in 2008 and his spending his career with the Mets gives him a slight advantage.

Ambiorix Burgos also receives a 5% stake in the Mets closer race based on his pre-surgery triple digit fastball and his being the only player mentioned thus far with the ability to strike out more than a player per inning.

Pedro Feliciano is also a player who could receive some consideration for the role, but he's perfectly situated as the lefty setup man and the Mets would be ill advised to mess with a good thing.

This brings us to options outside of the organization. If my tally is correct, there is a 40% chance the Mets closer in 2009 will come from outside the organization. With that said, here is my wish list which will only include one year stopgap types since I'm proceeding with the assumption that the Mets will spend 2009 grooming Kunz as a setup man with the intention of turning over the closer role to him in 2010.

Juan Cruz - Cruz enters free agency as one of the most undervalued relievers in the game. His ERA currently stands at 2.91, and his 61 strikeouts and .188 BAA in 43 1/3 innings pitched screams closer. I could see him inking a one year deal with a chance to close in the hopes of securing a multi-year deal in 2010. What better place to do that than the big apple?

Trevor Hoffman - With the Padres badly needing to rebuild, would Trevor Hoffman leave the west coast for a shot at a ring? After seeing Brett Favre in a Jets jersey Sunday, anything is possible. Hoffman would serve as a perfect tutor to both Smith and Kunz. He's not the shut down closer he once was, but could playing for a contender in a new stadium reinvigorate him?

Brandon Lyon - With 26 saves, Lyon now has experience as a closer on a playoff contender. Unfortunately, that experience comes with a 4.76 ERA and a .302 BAA. His attempt to earn a huge payday did not turn out as he had hoped, but if Joe Borowski and Todd Jones can hang around as closers, Brandon Lyon should wind up with 9th inning duties somewhere.

Salomon Torres - With the Brewers holding a 3.75 million dollar team option for Torres' services in 2009, it is very unlikely that he will be available to sign with the Mets. However, the Brewers may be wise to deal him after a career season in which he is likely to save 30+ games. With an ERA currently one and a half runs below his career average, his value has not been this high since he was a prospect in the early 1990's.

Maybe the Mets will surprise and make a major play for Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes. They certainly have the money to dabble, but a signing of that magnitude would mean the Mets recent draft philosophy of relievers early and often has proved to be a complete and utter failure. I doubt the Mets are willing to make that concession quite yet.

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